Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market

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Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market
Terry a Marsh
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Zellner (1979)).
4. A Re duced Form for the Dynamic Model Although we have proposed equation (5) for aggregate dividend dynamics as both a structural and a regression equation, it cannot be estimated in its current form because management assessments of changes in firms' permanent earnings are not observable. In this section, we add the necessary further specification to estimate the model.
If managers are rational forecasters and the market is reasonably efficient, then the market's estimate o
...f a firm's intrinsic value should on average be equal to the intrinsic value estimate made by that firm' s management. We therefore assume that the discounted value V (t) of the expected future aggregate net cash flows of all firms per market share, as estimated from the market's information set, is equal to the aggregate sum of the intrinsic values where the intrinsic value of each firm is estimated from 14 the information set of that firm's management. This market efficiency condition can be written as: V^(t) = v'^Ct) for all t (7) where V (t) is given by (1) with e = e .

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