Principles Methods of Industrial Peace

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§ 13. These considerations suggest that a still better index is afforded by output or profits. Since these indices take account of factors, which margins ignore, a plea for a reduction of wages based upon a fall in the margin can always be met by a proof that the output or profit of the industry, or of the representative firm in it, has increased. Nor will any rejoinder be valid to the effect that the increase has only occurred in consequence of the fall in price.
There are, however, obstacles
...in the way of both the above indices. The employment of output is rendered difficult by considerations affecting the element of time. As has already been observed, a given change in labour demand is generally corre- lated with a change in public demand occurring previously. This change in public demand is in turn correlated with a contemporaneous change in prices, margins, and profits (in the sense of net receipts).
Therefore, changes in any of these indices, determined on the record of the past two or three months, may fairly be used as data for wage changes in the next two or three.


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