An Essay On Probabilities And On Their Application to Life Contingencies And I
An Essay On Probabilities And On Their Application to Life Contingencies And I
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To quickly assess the difficulty of the text, read a short excerpt:
Having drawn a letter 100 times running, we are to infer (page 64. ) that it is 101 to 1 in favour of our drawing a letter at the 101st trial; or that |g-J is the chance of this. But it is already 103 to 1 that the next drawing shall be, not merely a letter, but one F 2 68 ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES.
of the letters A, B, and C : that is, to all appearance, we have this strange result ; the chances of drawing one of the three, A, B or C, are greater than those of drawing one of the set, A or B, or C... or D, &c. &c. Up to Z. This paradox will afford me a good opportunity of again inculcating the maxim, that the probability of an event is the presumption drawn from certain obvious principles, as to what the state of our minds ought to be with regard to belief in the happening of that event, as influenced by our knowledge of previous events. Consequently, if John know that A, B, and C have been drawn 49, 37, and 14 times, and nothing more, he has reasonable ground, with his knowledge, for assenting to the proposition that the 101st trial shall give either A, B, or C, as to a proposition which has ^-g-J of probability, or 103 to 1 in its favour.
What to read after An Essay On Probabilities And On Their Application to Life Contingencies And I?
You can find similar books in the "Read Also" column, or choose other free books by De Morgan Augustus to read onlineMoreLess
To quickly assess the difficulty of the text, read a short excerpt:
Having drawn a letter 100 times running, we are to infer (page 64. ) that it is 101 to 1 in favour of our drawing a letter at the 101st trial; or that |g-J is the chance of this. But it is already 103 to 1 that the next drawing shall be, not merely a letter, but one F 2 68 ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES.
of the letters A, B, and C : that is, to all appearance, we have this strange result ; the chances of drawing one of the three, A, B or C, are greater than those of drawing one of the set, A or B, or C... or D, &c. &c. Up to Z. This paradox will afford me a good opportunity of again inculcating the maxim, that the probability of an event is the presumption drawn from certain obvious principles, as to what the state of our minds ought to be with regard to belief in the happening of that event, as influenced by our knowledge of previous events. Consequently, if John know that A, B, and C have been drawn 49, 37, and 14 times, and nothing more, he has reasonable ground, with his knowledge, for assenting to the proposition that the 101st trial shall give either A, B, or C, as to a proposition which has ^-g-J of probability, or 103 to 1 in its favour.
What to read after An Essay On Probabilities And On Their Application to Life Contingencies And I?
You can find similar books in the "Read Also" column, or choose other free books by De Morgan Augustus to read onlineMoreLess
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