Expectation Value for the Size of Devastation Areas Produced By N Bombs
Expectation Value for the Size of Devastation Areas Produced By N Bombs
H E Robbins
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Bien If a Is suffi- ciently small we can set, without serious error, r a/B for (x, y) within the doiriain D f(x, y)=^j (_0 elsewhere. Prom (1) It follows that (2) E^ =: B[l - (1 - |)^]. In order that Ejj ^ (1 -ao)B we must have (3) n =; log oc/log(l - |) Thus If o6 » . 05 and a/B = . 01, n ^ 300. -5- THE OENSRAL CAT-E Since CO ff f(x, y)dx dy = a, -00 It follows from (1) that (4) E„ « na - :^(-l)^ C(n, l) 21 f^(^, 7) dx dy, ^ 1=2 ^ For "small" a and n we can make the approximation 00 * 4 00, (5...) //f^(x, y) dx dy - a^ // P (x, y) dx dy. -00 -oo Thus we obtain the approximate formula 00 (6) E„ =r na - :E (-1)^ C(n, i) a^ // p^(x, y) dx dy. ^ i«2 -00 For exanple, if 2 2 p(x, y) « l/(2Tr) e "li +-2—, then oo 1 1 // P (3c, y) dx dy = -- — -rrr -oo l(2n)^ ^ Thus n (7) E„c^ na - 51 (-1)^ C{n, l) a^ L__. ^ 1=2 i(2n)^^ = na[l - 1 Z: (-1)^ -^^ ^W-^^"^5- Y APPENDIX. THE VARIAITCE IN THE "PLAT" CASE By definition of variance. (8) O-^^(X) = e(X - fc(X))2 « ^(X^) - £.^(X) = fc(x2) - E^ > 0, where i:(f(X)) denotes the expected value of f(X)« But since X^
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