Experiments in Psychical Research At Leland Stanford Junior University

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Experiments in Psychical Research At Leland Stanford Junior University
Harry Houdini Collection (Library of Congress) Dlc
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(pp. 253-4).
Assuming that the chance of a R g^ess of a conscription-number was %5o (p = . 00667), less than 300 guesses of conscription-numbers would need to have been made during the eight years for the five cases to be accotmted for by chance.
Richard A. Proctor ^'^ gives several cases of rare events : (4) Professor De Morgan, in his 'Budget of Paradoxes' says : "In the French lottery five numbers out of ninety were drawn at a time; any person, in any part !•« Proceedings S. P. R., 1895, 11
...: 545 ff.
^•Udem, 1899, 14:253-4.
^•* Richard A. Proctor : (Chance and Luck ; a discussion of the laws of luck, coincidences, wagers, lotteries, and the fallacies of gambling. London, 1899.
Digitized by Google 350 INDUCTIVE PROBABIUTY of the country, might stake any sum upon any event he pleased, as that 27 should be drawn ; that 42 and 81 should be drawn ; that 42 and 81 should be drawn and 43 first ; and so on up to a quine determine, if he chose, which is betting on five given numbers in a given order." The chance of a successful guess, in this last case, is i in 5,274,772,160.


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