Individual Forecasting Ability

Cover Individual Forecasting Ability
Individual Forecasting Ability
Patricia C Obrien
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The reason for criterion (4) is to ensure sufficient information is available to generate statistically viable comparisons.
The fifth criterion, that each analyst in the sample have forecasts in at least four of the seven years for which data exist, again addresses the issue of statistical validity. As was discussed previously, the shorter the time- series on a given analyst, the harder it is to distinguish true forecasting ability, because of common information across firms within years.
Crite
...rion (6) attempts to address a possible flaw in the database. As mentioned above, at any point in time, there is variation in the ages of forecasts available. This variation may occur in the population for several reasons. First, if some analysts update their forecasts only in response to new information, old forecasts may remain because (1) for some firms, there has been no important unanticipated information, or (2) the analyst is a superior forecaster and foresaw events which others did not, hence no updating was necessary for that individual .

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