Interpretation of the Index of General Business Conditions

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The relationships which obtained between the three curves representing speculation, business and banking, during the pre-war period, are evident from the chart, the most significant for the purposes of forecasting being the order in time of the major movements. These relationships are the basis for our inter- pretation of the current Index Chart, which shows the conditions that have existed since the armistice.
For the period 1914-18 the Great War and government control of industry dislocated e
...co- nomic conditions to such an extent that the nor- mal relations between speculation, business, and banking, which the Index shows to have obtained in time of peace, no longer existed ; the chart for the war period is, therefore, not presented. The current Index, however, for the period since the armistice — based necessarily on somewhat dif- ferent statistical series from those originally utilized for the pre-war period — shows that the normal pre-war sequences between speculation, business, and banking have been resumed.

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