Learning Effects And the Commercialization of New Energy Technologies the Case

Cover Learning Effects And the Commercialization of New Energy Technologies the Case
Learning Effects And the Commercialization of New Energy Technologies the Case
Martin B Zimmerman
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14 Why were the cost estimates wrong?
a. Economies of scale and other technology-related factors A favorite explanation for the miscalculation of costs was that the early cost estimates were based upon an incorrect understanding of the economies of scale. All initial estimates for new technologies are based upon scale-up from smaller-scale plants. Estimates of equation (2) suggest that this was a factor, but by no means the most important source of error. Th€ expected scale parameter, 6, is est
...imated to be twice the actually realized factor, a, . However, the relatively large standard error associated with the actual scale parameter does not allow rejection of the hypothesis of equality. A second technology-associated item is the presence of a _, estimation mechanical cooling tower. These towers Increased cost /-errors on average by 18% as measured by (a--6c) • It appears that lack of understanding of the basic technology did contribute to cost error.
b. The effect of delcTys In all discussions of the costs of nuclear power a large importance has been attributed to long lags in construction.


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