Pan-Germanism, From Its Inception to the Outbreak of the War, a Critical Study

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Russia in the Balkans, in other words, would promptly compel Germany and Austria to take up the de- fensive and to do so under distinct disadvantages.
Once Russia occupied such a position, England and France could promptly overrun the Mediterr.
ranean, take Trieste, conquer the Adriatic, isolate Italy, compel her at the very least to cede Tripoli.
Thus they could secure a firmer hold upon the Mediterranean than ever before. From Russia's point of view, an independent confederation in the Balkan
...s, coupled to the right of freedom of passage through the Straits and the permission to create a fleet in the Black Sea, would be prac- tically as advantageous a solution as she could ask. Aside from the plains of the Lower Danube, the Balkans themselves are of little value to her, and so vitally threaten Austria that war could hardly be avoided. Russia is more anxious to open the Black Sea and to obtain naval control than she is to torce the issue with Austria at present. An independent Balkan confederation would protect the Straits from Austria, and would 212 THE BALKAN CRISIS in practice, whatever treaties and agreements might say, give her control.

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