Research Program On the Management of Science And Technology the Delphi Techniq
Research Program On the Management of Science And Technology the Delphi Techniq
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In our eReader you can find the full English version of the book. Read Research Program On the Management of Science And Technology the Delphi Techniq Online - link to read the book on full screen. Our eReader also allows you to upload and read Pdf, Txt, ePub and fb2 books. In the Mini eReder on the page below you can quickly view all pages of the book - Read Book Research Program On the Management of Science And Technology the Delphi Techniq
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The first is the tacit assumption that forecasting is similar to the processes of estimation involved in Project DELPHI and the judgmental processes that are justi- fied by the philosophy of the inexact sciences. This is not intuitively ob- vious and nnay result in overjustifying the use of Delphi for future tech- nological developments, which, in turn, may create a sense of overcon- fidence in the forecast results. The other aspect of importance is the establishment of scientific objectivity f...or Delphi forecasts through "al- manac" studies. Given that almanac studies do, in fact, justify the use of Delphi for almanac studies it is again not intuitively obvious that they are adequate tests for forecast studies. (A discussion of the impli- cations of almanac studies results is in a later section. ) It is suggested that users of Delphi forecasts be aware of these tacit assumptions and their implications and should, perhaps, exercise caution in placing too much confidence in the results.
What to read after Research Program On the Management of Science And Technology the Delphi Techniq?
You can find similar books in the "Read Also" column, or choose other free books by Alan R Fusfeld to read onlineMoreLess
To quickly assess the difficulty of the text, read a short excerpt:
The first is the tacit assumption that forecasting is similar to the processes of estimation involved in Project DELPHI and the judgmental processes that are justi- fied by the philosophy of the inexact sciences. This is not intuitively ob- vious and nnay result in overjustifying the use of Delphi for future tech- nological developments, which, in turn, may create a sense of overcon- fidence in the forecast results. The other aspect of importance is the establishment of scientific objectivity f...or Delphi forecasts through "al- manac" studies. Given that almanac studies do, in fact, justify the use of Delphi for almanac studies it is again not intuitively obvious that they are adequate tests for forecast studies. (A discussion of the impli- cations of almanac studies results is in a later section. ) It is suggested that users of Delphi forecasts be aware of these tacit assumptions and their implications and should, perhaps, exercise caution in placing too much confidence in the results.
What to read after Research Program On the Management of Science And Technology the Delphi Techniq?
You can find similar books in the "Read Also" column, or choose other free books by Alan R Fusfeld to read onlineMoreLess
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