The Cycles of Speculation

Cover The Cycles of Speculation
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In order to correctly weigh the effects of legislative measures on security values and prices, we must therefore examine fairly what the legislation seeks to accomplish, taking care not to allow a contemporaneous price move- ment which may be due to other causes, to act as a verification of a false view. This error occurs very frequently ; in fact, one of the most remarkable things about speculation is that the true causes of great movements are fully appreciated by the majority only in retrosp
...ect.
The probable market effect of legislative and political affairs can be correctly gauged only by examining the nature and importance of the issue in question. This is true not only of state and municipal action, but in regard to presidential elections. There is a popular idea that it is dangerous to buy stocks on the eve of a new presidential campaign, but there is POLITICAL INFLUENCES, CROPS, ETC. 81 not much in history to uphold the view. True, in a majority of cases, a decline has preceded such a contest, but there have been frequent reversals of this action, and we have had too few elections to attempt any chart-playing on this influence.


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