Improving the Informational Content of the Simple Capital Budgeting Model

Cover Improving the Informational Content of the Simple Capital Budgeting Model
Improving the Informational Content of the Simple Capital Budgeting Model
Peter Brownell
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This introduces difficulties into the analysis for, without knowledge of the distributional form of sales (i. E. Normal, poisson, gamma, etc. ) we generally cannot discover its standard deviation. For our purposes I introduce the greatly simplifying assumption that sales are normally distributed with y of 25, 000. This provides for computational ease and also allows a convenient, albeit crude, opportunity to elicit an estimate of the standard deviation. The sales manager or market research team... responsible for the estimate of y=25, 000 are once again consulted and asked "within what range about 25, 000 units annually, are you 2/3 (i. E. 66 2/3?o) certain that sales will fall?" This provides an estimated of the standard deviation of sales (a). We will recall that approximately 68% (68. 26?c to be exact) of the area under the normal curve lies within the range y - la.
-7 Suppose thst o is thus estimated to be 2, 000 units. Some vital information related to the decision is now available.


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